Book 2006.05.02 - Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking

This is one book that is going to really change the way you think. Actually, in this wonderful book by Malcolm Gladwell, he says, "Don't think - blink." Some of the best decisions are made in the blink of an eye - not through lengthy analysis and planning sessions. Call it gut feel or intuition, sometimes there are some things that we know in advance, even before we have the evidence to prove it:

• whether a person is Ms./Mr. Right after talking to her/him for only 5 minutes
• whether a movie is good or bad by watching the first 5 minutes (same goes for songs)
• judging a book by its cover design
• forming lasting first impressions of people when we first meet them
• guessing at a person's personality based on his MP3 and/or book collection

We've always been taught that haste makes waste. As the Chinese proverb goes, "Think thrice before taking the next step." Mr. Gladwell says otherwise. There are lots of instances - specially during times of high stress - where snap judgments is a better alternative. (And most of the time, they turn out to be correct, too.) In the book, Mr. Gladwell cites some stories where thin-slicing are put to good use:

• A psychologist called John Gottman puts a married couple in a room, and shoots an hour-long video of them talking about any topic of their choice. He chops the captured video into short segments and classifies them into certain emotions. Using his thin-slicing method, he can predict with 95% accuracy whether that couple will separate or stay together 15 years down the road.
• A researcher shows videos of professors doing class lectures to students, and asks them to rate whether the professors are good or bad. The researcher shortens the length of the videos and conducts the same experiment to a different set of students. He keeps shortening the duration of the videos, but he gets the same consistent ratings from different sets of subjects.
• In a bold experiment at Cook County Hospital in Chicago, ER doctors were told to gather less information about their patients. In making their diagnoses, they were told to only consider critical information such as blood pressure and the ECG, and ignore everything else such as the patient's age and weight and medical history. In a short time, Cook County became one of the best places in the United States at diagnosing chest pain because of their radical methodology.

Thin-slicing in itself is not infallible, though. Ever wondered why most Fortune 500 CEOs are males of above-average height? Why certain people are singled out for spot checks at airport queues and customs, regardless which airport they go to? Mr. Gladwell tells of a tragic story where thin-slicing (and stereotyping) went awfully wrong. A couple of plainclothes policemen in an unmarked patrol car were cruising in a high-crime area. It's after midnight, and they see this (non-Caucasian) guy standing out in the street looking left and right. They decided he looks suspicious and could be a lookout. They started approaching the man, asking him what he's doing. The man panicked and ran inside the apartment. The cops had their guns out and gave chase. The man was desperately trying to open the door, while his other hand was fishing for something in his pocket. He pulled out something black. The cops decided it's a gun, and pumped the man full of bullets. After the smoke had cleared, they saw that the man was holding his wallet. Later investigation shows that the man doesn't understand English, and he was out that morning to get some fresh air. Sad.

With this book, Mr. Gladwell gives us a better understanding of what happens during the first few seconds when we jump to conclusions. By consciously analyzing how we make use of our rapid cognition and thin-slicing skills, we can hopefully make better and faster decisions.